“Let me begin with four words that will provide the context for this week, four words that will come to define this century. Here they are: The Earth is full.” And so begins Paul Gilding’s 2012 TED talk given last month. Gilding begins strongly by stating his talk’s thesis succinctly and compellingly from the get go. Few people have summed up the climate crisis so gracefully, and in only four words no less.
Gilding doesn’t rely on a clear structure for his talk, and he doesn’t use much narrative. He speaks in facts, point blank, sans extra cushioning or milieu. “This is just science.” “Our economy is unsustainable.” “It’s all about physics.” This is a highly effective way to discuss particularly divisive topics like climate change. Everyone has an opinion on the matter, and in some cases, the most uninformed have the loudest voice in the conversation. At times, it’s easier to be heard amidst established opinions and prejudices if stories and emotions are left out of the conversation. Gilding excels at this, at least toward the beginning of his presentation as he establishes basic facts.
We’re living beyond our means, Gilding says, and it would take 1.5 earths to maintain our economy as it is today. He relates this figure in financial terms, which with an audience full of CEOs, VPs and COOs is an effective tool to strengthen understanding. He says the world is essentially spending 50% more than it has and each year it’s getting more and more in debt and needs to borrow more and more money. But there’s the kicker, Gilding says. We can’t borrow natural resources, so we’re either going to run out or start living within our means. “Our economy is unsustainable.” Economic growth will stop eventually; there is no possibility of that not happening.
Throughout his talk, Gilding speaks to the doubters, to the other side of the argument, to the nonbelievers. “You’re thinking, come on…” “Many of you are thinking…” “In response, some people argue…” “That’s not possible, you think…” and on and on. Again, this is an effective technique if the subject matter is highly contentious. It is imperative that he addresses the other side of the argument because it’s very likely he’s speaking to people who are very much convinced that climate change is not a problem in the slightest. He’s creating dialogue with the skeptics, with those unconvinced. And he does a good job at it.
Gilding also does well to avoid negativity. He’s speaking on a bleak subject with terrifying consequences if he is indeed correct. But he remains hopeful that in 2050 a planet of 9 billion people can exist comfortably, the world can continue on as it is, if we act now. The problem, he says, is that environmental experts have been warning the world’s leaders and people for years and years, and yet we aren’t slowing down. We aren’t changing despite this inevitability that the world will not sustain as it is now.
He says it’s time to end our denial, though he believes we won’t act until the crisis hits the economy. Then people will have something to fear. “It takes a good crisis to get us going,” Gilding argues. “When we feel fear and we fear loss, we are capable of quite extraordinary things.” This is an apt observation and an important one. Crisis is inevitable, he argues. How will we react to it is the important issue.
He implores the audience to consider what is likely to happen when the carbon market bursts and China, India and Pakistan go to war over resources. What is likely to happen when the Middle East has no oil income but declining governments, or when unemployment is 30% in America and there’s no food on the shelves at supermarkets? What does that mean for you and your personal security? Gilding asks these questions not to scare his audience but to force them to consider very real possibilities if action is not taken.
This is a very effective tacit for getting his point across. It’s thought provoking without being apocalyptic. He strengthens his argument by pointing out that it’s been the hottest year on record for three years in row. When are people going to take these facts seriously? And after proposing these serious problems, he asks the audience to “take a moment. What do you feel at this point? Perhaps denial. Perhaps anger. Maybe fear.” Yet again, Gilding circles back to hopefulness, saying that it’s possible to transform our economy, we simply need to change our way of thinking.
Like his beginning, Gilding finishes strongly. “What do we want to be when we grow up? When we move past this bumbling adolescence where we think there are no limits and suffer delusions of immortality. Well, it’s time to grow up.” And he says if we plan to stick around until middle age, it’s going to take everyone– every mother, father, artist, entrepreneur, etc.– to make it happen. With any hope, “this could be our finest hour.”
